Chelsea vs Leeds United
Leeds United have defied expectations in the FA Cup, as they’re through to the semi-finals this year. And Daniel Farke’s men will fancy their chances against a downtrodden Chelsea side on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.
The Whites are here after outlasting the Hammers in the penalty shootout during the quarter-finals. Since then, they’ve racked up back-to-back Premier League victories over Manchester United (2-1) and Wolves (3-0), and a 2-2 draw against Bournemouth to stretch their undefeated run to seven games across all competitions.
In stark contrast, Chelsea have lost seven of their last eight across all competitions, with the lone win being a 7-0 drubbing of Port Vale in the quarter-finals. Because of this, the Blues have sacked head coach Liam Rosenior, and Calum McFarlane faces the daunting task of turning their fortunes around.
Talking Points
Chelsea are compromised in the final third
Chelsea have spent a fortune building their attack in the past few years. However, their investment has yet to bear fruit, as Jamie Gittens, Alejandro Garnacho, Liam Delap, and Estevao – their most recent marquee signings amounting to €176 million – have combined for only four Premier League goals this season. Save for their 7-0 rout of Port Vale, Chelsea haven’t scored a goal in their last four Premier League games while conceding 10 on the other end, and this awful stretch ultimately cost Liam Rosenior his job.
Most recently, Chelsea were pummeled by Brighton (3-0), where they didn’t have a single shot on target. The Blues were without top scorers Joao Pedro (14 goals) and Cole Palmer (eight goals), while Estevao is still recovering from a hamstring injury. Pedro and Palmer have been upgraded to questionable against the Whites, while Estevao is not expected to be available this weekend. Moreover, Jamie Gittens, Filip Jorgensen, and Levi Colwill remain long-term absentees.
If none of them make it on Saturday, the attacking onus is on Liam Delap, Alejandro Garnacho, and Pedro Neto, with Enzo Fernandez expected to provide support.
Okafor in excellent form for Leeds United
Leeds United are picking up steam, thanks to Noah Okafor’s purple patch, as the Swiss international has scored five goals in his last five appearances, including netting a brace in last week’s 2-1 win at Manchester United. Okafor is now the Whites’ second-leading scorer with seven goals and one assist, and head coach Daniel Farke urged the former AC Milan forward to stay “humble and hungry” in the coming matches.
Besides Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, and Brenden Aaronson are also capable of wreaking havoc in the final third. Calvert-Lewin already has 11 goals to lead the squad, while Nmecha has six goals. Aaronson is Leeds United’s top playmaker with five assists to go along with four goals.
Leeds United have a healthier squad than Chelsea this weekend, as Anton Stach (ankle) is their only notable absentee. The German midfielder also has four goals this term.
History
Chelsea and Leeds United shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw in their most recent league encounter last February. Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer gave the Blues a two-goal lead before Lukas Nmecha and Noah Okafor sparked the Whites’ rally to salvage a point at Stamford Bridge. Leeds United are undefeated against Chelsea so far this term (W1, D1).
The Blues have faced the Whites in six previous FA Cup ties and have advanced from all six, most recently in the 2023-24 fifth round. They’ve also progressed from nine of their last 11 FA Cup semi-finals, with their two losses coming against Manchester City in 2012-13 and 2023-24.
Leeds United last played in an FA Cup semi-final in 1986-87, and the last time the Whites reached the finals was in 1972-73.
Betting Tip
The FA Cup 2026 odds have Chelsea ending their losing streak this weekend, as they’re priced at 2.12 to win. However, it’s hard to overlook that interim head coach Calum McFarlane will have his work cut out for him to get the Blues back on song, so I’m going for a Whites victory at 3.17. Both teams should get on the scoresheet and create new FA Cup 2026 highlights at Wembley, with Leeds United likely to score more. Besides our recommended bet, SBOTOP punters may want to add Over 2.50 at 1.94, Over 2.75 at 2.21, and Total Goal 2-3 at 1.98 to the parlay for more value. Interestingly, the Correct Score of 2-2 – the result of their last league meeting – has a staggering offer of 14.50 your bet.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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