Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund
Of all the high profile European clashes this week, Champions League: Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund may have gone under the radar a little, but the tie is in a fascinating position with the Serie A side tasked with turning around a two goal deficit.
Niko Kovac’s BVB took control of the tie with a 2-0 win in the first leg; but it’s a widely held belief in football that 2-0 can be a risky lead to hold. Sure; it’s better than being two down but the third goal is always crucial. 3-0 and the match is almost done, 2-1 and there is more often than not a sharp shift in momentum.
And the fact that La Dea has home advantage in the second half means that third goal will be pivotal, and the Serie A side is sure to go after their visitors from the get go.
Atalanta boss Raffaele Palladino has really turned round the club’s domestic season, a 2-1 win over Napoli last weekend effectively ending I Partenopei’s Scudetto hopes, while lifting his team up to seventh in the Serie A table and just a single point behind Juventus in fifth.
The SBOTOP odds say Atalanta has the edge in this tie but it promises to be a cracker. BVB have proved my point, by themselves coming back from a two goal deficit to draw 2-2 away to Red Bull Leipzig on Saturday… so let’s see which way this one goes.
Talking Points
La Dea’s league form belies Euro woes
Atalanta was one win away from qualifying for the Round of 16 automatically but back to back losses to Athletic Bilbao and Union Saint-Gilloise left the Italians in the play-off seeded places. Those two defeats were all the more frustrating because both Bilbao and Union SG were eliminated, and defeat to Dortmund last week made it three European losses on the bounce. Compare that with La Dea’s Serie A form; the win over Napoli made it three league victories in a row and beating Antonio Conte’s reigning champions was quite a statement, particularly as Atalanta recovered from a 1-0 half time deficit.
Croatian midfielder Mario Pasalic hauled his team back in the game when he nodded in from a Nicola Zalewski corner and Atalanta turned the game around when substitute Lazar Samardzic planted home his 81st minute header.
The absence of attacking midfielder Charles De Ketelaere, who is sidelined for at least a month, means the influence of Pasalic is crucial to Atalanta’s hopes of launching another comeback on Wednesday night.
Dortmund’s big players have hit form
The first leg quickly went the way of BVB as star striker Serhou Guirassy scored with just three minutes on the clock, and a second from Max Beier made it 2-0 by half time. La Dea had more possession and more shots on target, at three to two, but Gregor Kobel in the Dortmund goal was unbeatable. Guirassy’s goal made it seven goal contributions in five games for the Guinea star and he has bagged 11 in the league this season. Meanwhile wingback Julian Ryerson, who crossed for Guirassy to score in the first leg, has 11 assists in the Bundesliga, the second highest tally in the league.
Dortmund’s clash with Red Bull Leipzig put Kovac’s team to the test as the hosts raced into a 2-0 half time lead. But after BVB pegged Leipzig back, thanks to an own goal early in the second half, Karim Adeyemi, one of the fastest players in the German league, made a 95th minute assist for Fabio Silva to level.
One player unlikely to feature heavily in the Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund highlights is dominant centre back Nico Schlotterbeck who missed the game against Red Bull as a precaution, nursing a muscle strain. But this team, second in the Bundesliga, has a lot of experience and plenty of big players hitting form at the right time.
History
Borussia Dortmund won the Champions League in 1997 and were finalists in 2013 and 2024. La Dea is a relative newcomer to the European top table but the Italians were Europa League champions in 2024, beating Bayer Leverkusen in the final.
This is the fifth time BVB have met Atalanta and the Germans have their noses in front with two wins to one, while there has been one draw. The only other meeting at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo ended in a 1-1 draw, in the Europa League back in 2018.
Both teams have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six games.
Betting Tip
The Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund betting odds say we’re in for a great game on Wednesday, in a wide open affair which has La Dea at 2.05 to win, with Die Schwarzgelben at 3.10 and the draw at 3.75. I wouldn’t put it past Atalanta turning the tie around on home soil, but I think BVB have plenty of goal threat and I’m going out on a limb for a 2-2 draw.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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